Grocery prices took a noticeable jump in August, rising 1.09% for the month, the fastest pace since February, as berry season began to wind down and several other seasonal items moved higher. Below, research associate Dr. Ben Brennan breaks down what drove the increase, which prices bucked the trend and moved lower, and a first look at time-series charts tracking how these prices have moved over the past year.
August 2026 Price Tracker
In August, overall prices increased substantially relative to July. Some of this was driven by the harvest season winding down for the same produce items that had kept basket prices down. If every month saw price increases at the same rate as this past August, the grocery basket would increase in cost by nearly 14.0 percent for the year.
| Month | Monthly Growth | Growth Since September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| January | -1.88% | -1.34% |
| February | 1.43% | 0.07% |
| March | -0.46% | -0.39% |
| April | -0.33% | -0.72% |
| May | 0.84% | 0.12% |
| June | -0.08% | 0.03% |
| July | -0.36% | -0.32% |
| August | 1.09% | 0.76% |
For this month's blog, we’re going to start visualizing the data we’ve collected over the past year. You’ll see time series plots of the prices we’ve collected over time. The lowest and highest lines represent the minimum and maximum prices recorded in the data. Then we have three measures of the central tendency for prices in the region: the median price, the simple average price, and the weighted average price. The median ranks the prices from lowest to highest and returns the middle price. The simple average weights each store in our sample equally. Finally, the weighted average weights each store’s price by the population of the county the store is in.
Drivers of Basket Increase
Berries are a big story this month. Strawberries, Blackberries, and Blueberries are all up significantly. Berry season typically starts to unwind in August, which helps explain the higher prices we saw in August.
| Item | Price Change | Percent Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strawberries (pound) | $0.78 | 26.8% | $3.68 |
| Blackberries (pound) | $0.59 | 8.2% | $7.83 |
| Flank Steak (pound) | $0.58 | 4.1% | $14.74 |
| Blueberries (pound) | $0.53 | 9.5% | $6.12 |
| Peaches (pound) | $0.45 | 22.9% | $2.40 |
| 12-pack of Coca-Cola | $0.45 | 5.0% | $9.38 |
| Orange Juice (gallon) | $0.41 | 5.4% | $7.96 |
| Oranges (pound) | $0.33 | 26.4% | $1.58 |
| Ground Beef (pound) (not frozen) | $0.26 | 3.9% | $7.04 |
| Salmon (pound) | $0.21 | 2.0% | $10.53 |
Flank steak and ground beef both saw fairly large increases in their price per pound. Both prices have been steadily rising since we started tracking them. We started tracking separate cuts of steak in March of this year, and the weighted average of local prices has risen by over $1.00 per pound. Additionally, the minimum price has risen by over $2.00 per pound since March of this year.
We have tracked ground beef prices since September of 2025, and the weighted average price has risen $1.01 since then, though it has fluctuated in the interim. The extremely low minimum price in October 2025 may be a measurement error. Even ignoring it, the minimum price rose significantly, from $3.97 in December 2025 to $5.29 per pound in August 2026.
Other notable price increases this month include canned soup, canned green beans, and frozen pineapple. These price changes were smaller in dollar amount but represented significant percentage changes.
| Item | Price Change | Percent Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strawberries (pound) | $0.78 | 26.8% | $3.68 |
| Oranges (pound) | $0.33 | 26.4% | $1.58 |
| Peaches (pound) | $0.45 | 22.9% | $2.40 |
| Canned Soup (store brand) (10.5 ounces) | $0.19 | 22.6% | $1.02 |
| Blueberries (pound) | $0.53 | 9.5% | $6.12 |
| Blackberries (pound) | $0.59 | 8.2% | $7.83 |
| Canned Green Beans (14.5 ounces) | $0.05 | 5.5% | $0.90 |
| Frozen Pineapple (16 ounces) | $0.20 | 5.5% | $3.95 |
| Orange Juice (gallon) | $0.41 | 5.4% | $7.96 |
| 12-pack of Coca-Cola | $0.45 | 5.0% | $9.38 |
The trend for canned soup prices has been generally declining since October of 2025. However, August reversed this trend, with a $0.19 increase from July.
Canned green beans, on the other hand, have gradually increased over the past year. In October 2025, the weighted average price was $0.80, and in August 2026, it was $0.90.
Finally, frozen pineapple has seen a fairly steady increase since April 2026, likely reflecting rising transportation and energy costs. In April of 2026, 16 ounces of frozen pineapple cost $3.16 on average in Cincinnati. As of August of 2026, 16 ounces of frozen pineapple cost $3.95.
Are All Prices Rising?
Despite August seeing the fastest overall price increases since February, some prices moderated as well. Top sirloin fell by $0.77 per pound. Overall top sirloin’s price has bounced up and down without changing much since we started tracking it specifically. In March 2026 the weighted average price of Top Sirloin was $13.48 compared to the $13.37 per pound in August.
| Item | Price Change | Percent Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top Sirloin Steak (pound) | -$0.77 | -5.4% | $13.37 |
| Cod (pound) | -$0.62 | -4.8% | $12.16 |
| Deli Turkey (sliced) (pound) | -$0.46 | -7.1% | $6.05 |
| Cheese (store brand block) | -$0.28 | -7.5% | $3.46 |
| Head of Lettuce | -$0.17 | -7.2% | $2.15 |
| Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast (pound) | -$0.14 | -4.1% | $3.29 |
| Coffee (pound) | -$0.14 | -1.8% | $7.61 |
| Bakery Fresh Store Bakery Cupcakes (6 count) | -$0.13 | -2.2% | $5.81 |
| Flour (pound) | -$0.11 | -17.6% | $0.50 |
| Carrots (pound) | -$0.10 | -7.6% | $1.28 |
Cod prices had been rising since March due to catch quotas being reduced; however, that appears to finally be moderating. Cod is still more expensive per pound in August compared to March.
Finally, while lettuce prices had been fairly stable since October of 2025, the per-head price has been consistently falling since June. July is when the CDC announced investigations into the Cyclospora outbreak.
Most other price changes this past month were either modest or represented mean-reversions rather than long-run trends or major events.
| Item | Price Change | Percent Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flour (pound) | -$0.11 | -17.6% | $0.50 |
| Potatoes (pound) | -$0.07 | -8.0% | $0.82 |
| Carrots (pound) | -$0.10 | -7.6% | $1.28 |
| Cheese (store brand block) | -$0.28 | -7.5% | $3.46 |
| Green Bell Pepper (per pepper price) | -$0.08 | -7.5% | $0.94 |
| Head of Lettuce | -$0.17 | -7.2% | $2.15 |
| Deli Turkey (sliced) (pound) | -$0.46 | -7.1% | $6.05 |
| Top Sirloin Steak (pound) | -$0.77 | -5.4% | $13.37 |
| Cod (pound) | -$0.62 | -4.8% | $12.16 |
| Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast (pound) | -$0.14 | -4.1% | $3.29 |
Full Rundown of Average Prices
| Item | Average Price | Price Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-pack of Coca-Cola | $9.38 | $0.45 | 5.0% |
| Apples (pound) | $1.59 | $0.07 | 4.5% |
| Bacon (pound) | $4.65 | $0.07 | 1.5% |
| Bagels (half dozen) | $2.41 | $0.11 | 5.0% |
| Bakery Fresh Dinner Rolls (22 ounces) | $4.78 | $0.16 | 3.5% |
| Bakery Fresh Store Cupcakes (6 count) | $5.81 | -$0.13 | -2.2% |
| Bananas (pound) | $0.50 | -$0.01 | -2.2% |
| Blackberries (pound) | $7.83 | $0.59 | 8.1% |
| Blueberries (pound) | $6.12 | $0.53 | 9.5% |
| Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast (pound) | $3.29 | -$0.14 | -4.1% |
| Bread (20-ounce loaf) | $1.75 | $0.02 | 1.0% |
| Butter (pound) | $3.38 | $0.06 | 1.7% |
| Canned Tuna (5 ounces) | $1.02 | -$0.02 | -1.9% |
| Canned Green Beans (14.5 ounces) | $0.90 | $0.05 | 5.5% |
| Canned Peaches (15.25 ounces) | $1.85 | $0.00 | 0.1% |
| Canned Pineapple (20 ounces) | $1.89 | $0.04 | 2.1% |
| Canned Soup (store brand) (10.5 ounces) | $1.02 | $0.19 | 22.6% |
| Canned Spinach (13.5 ounces) | $1.51 | $0.01 | 0.4% |
| Canned Tomatoes (store brand-diced) (14.5 ounces) | $0.99 | $0.00 | 0.3% |
| Carrots (pound) | $1.28 | -$0.10 | -7.6% |
| Celery (1 head) | $2.38 | $0.03 | 1.4% |
| Cereal (store brand) (12 ounces) | $2.10 | -$0.05 | -2.1% |
| Cheese (store brand block) | $3.46 | -$0.28 | -7.5% |
| Coffee (pound) | $7.61 | -$0.14 | -1.8% |
| Cream Cheese (store brand) (16 ounces) | $3.31 | $0.01 | 0.2% |
| Cucumber (each) | $0.81 | -$0.01 | -1.5% |
| Deli Turkey (sliced) (pound) | $6.05 | -$0.46 | -7.1% |
| Eggs (dozen) | $1.63 | $0.05 | 3.3% |
| Flank Steak (pound) | $14.74 | $0.58 | 4.1% |
| Flat Iron Steak (pound) | $13.33 | $0.16 | 1.2% |
| Flour (pound) | $0.50 | -$0.11 | -17.6% |
| Cod (pound) | $12.16 | -$0.62 | -4.8% |
| Salmon (pound) | $10.53 | $0.21 | 2.0% |
| Tilapia (pound) | $7.75 | -$0.03 | -0.4% |
| Frozen Peas (16 ounces) | $1.48 | $0.02 | 1.7% |
| Frozen Pineapple (16 ounces) | $3.95 | $0.20 | 5.5% |
| Frozen Shredded Potatoes (16 ounces) | $2.05 | -$0.01 | -0.7% |
| Frozen Berry Mix (16 ounces) | $4.34 | $0.11 | 2.6% |
| Grapes (pound) | $2.14 | -$0.09 | -3.9% |
| Green Bell Pepper (per pepper price) | $0.94 | -$0.08 | -7.5% |
| Ground Beef (pound, not frozen) | $7.04 | $0.26 | 3.9% |
| Head of Lettuce | $2.15 | -$0.17 | -7.2% |
| Lemon (each) | $0.73 | $0.00 | 0.1% |
| Lime (each) | $0.52 | $0.00 | 0.7% |
| Milk (gallon) | $3.00 | -$0.07 | -2.3% |
| Olive Oil (store brand) (16.9 fluid ounces) | $6.97 | $0.13 | 1.9% |
| Orange Juice (gallon) | $7.96 | $0.41 | 5.4% |
| Oranges (pound) | $1.58 | $0.33 | 26.4% |
| Peaches (pound) | $2.40 | $0.45 | 22.9% |
| Peanut Butter (store brand) (16 ounces) | $2.13 | -$0.05 | -2.4% |
| Pears (pound) | $2.30 | -$0.10 | -4.0% |
| Plums (pound) | $2.72 | $0.12 | 4.5% |
| Potato Chips (store brand) (8 ounces) | $1.90 | $0.02 | 1.1% |
| Potatoes (pound) | $0.82 | -$0.07 | -8.0% |
| Rice, White, Long grain (pound) | $0.92 | $0.01 | 1.6% |
| Sour Cream (store brand) (16 ounces) | $1.97 | $0.02 | 1.1% |
| Spaghetti Noodles (store brand) (pound) | $1.22 | $0.03 | 2.4% |
| Spinach (bunch) | $1.84 | $0.02 | 0.8% |
| Store Bakery Chocolate Chip Cookies (12 count) | $4.45 | -$0.07 | -1.6% |
| Strawberries (pound) | $3.68 | $0.78 | 26.8% |
| Sugar Ground-white (pound) | $0.77 | -$0.03 | -4.0% |
| Tomatoes (pound) | $1.59 | $0.05 | 3.3% |
| Top Sirloin Steak (pound) | $13.37 | -$0.77 | -5.4% |
| Tri-Tip Steak (pound) | $12.45 | -$0.06 | -0.5% |
| Vanilla or Chocolate Ice Cream (store brand (gallon) | $7.53 | -$0.10 | -1.3% |
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